Will this trend continue?

Oil reaches historical peaks, so does gold! Now when my pet subject is so hotly contested - it leads me in to doing some digging.

I calculated the historical ratios of price of gold per oz vis-a-vis oil per barrel in dollars. Monthly data from Jan 1985 to Feb 2008. And the results -













Certainly the average value has hovered around 15-16 and todays value at 9 -10 makes gold look cheap.

Why this particular ratio?

1. Gold has for long been an alternate form of investment to counter the inflation injected in to the economy. The prime source/driver being oil.

2. Figures dating back from 1949 suggest a 15-16 average.

But does this average hold true as of today?

1. Gold is a prime and a lucrative investment. But surely we have far more avenues to invest today.

2. Will economies/investors go back to buying more gold as a hedge against inflation considering the continued devaluation of the dollar?

3. Consider this alternate school of thought'Gold being overvalued'. Surely supply surplus will slowly kick in and gold value will moderate.But gold unlike other commodities - is a metal, there is only so much that Mother Earth can produce.


Views?

Burning Bright!

Beauty conjures itself in a reddish-orange hue smeared with vertical dark stripes – nature is an artist with the right colours. Grace embodies itself through those proud white whiskers and the gait that evokes awe. A creature which would not want to relent!

The national animal of six countries namely India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Malaysia, N Korea and S Korea , it also has been adopted in various symbols, mascots and coat of arms. Revered and elevated to the status of deities in many cultures. One of the signs of the Chinese zodiac as well. Exhibited widely in literature and adopted in various cartoon depictions including Calvin and Hobbes - serving to the esoteric and the plebian cravings.

William Blake in his works ‘Songs of Innocence’ and ‘Songs of Experience’ juxtaposed child’s world versus an adult world, lamb versus a tiger(tyger) -

Tyger! Tyger! burning bright
In the forests of the night,
What immortal hand or eye
Could frame thy fearful symmetry?

Yet – humans can be diabolical most of the time. Tiger’s bones heal our bones, tiger’s teeth relieve us of tooth aches and yes tiger’s skin provides us warmth and decorate our walls.

Latest survey indicates 1400 tigers surviving in India today. Of the nine known tiger species – three are extinct (Javan, Bali and the Caspian). Bengal tiger which accounts for more than half of world’s tiger population is dwindling at an alarming pace. Project Tiger fizzled out with the Sariska fiasco. The revered creature is struggling to keep pace in this ruthless world.

The economy is booming at a torrid pace for the betterment of its citizens - for a hearty and healthy life. Surely a sanguine world would accommodate this elegant beast. Alas! Where? And add to it - the forest officials in liaison with poachers – thereby ensuring comforts which a government job may not satiate.

Conservation does not mean armed guards. Tigers need space, they need water, and like us they need a home. Conservation should be imbued in every human. Conservation needs education, it also needs a leader with a vision (Project Tiger results show!). It’s the crimson beauty - today - in fear of losing its stripes – the malice can surely spread to other charms of the wild.

Valmik Thapar had once said - 'Nothing short of a miracle can save tigers in the wild in this country. There are many well-intentioned people, but they don't know the needs of the tiger. We have half the world's tiger population. But on the horizon, politically, I see a zero chance of its survival'.

Should I be?

O petite plant what shall you be?
O petite plant what shall you be?

Will you be an Oak – steadfast and stout?
Will you be an Acacia – branches o’er cuckoos shout?

Will you be a Flame tree – hue red and bright?
Will you be a Cedar – soaring and a pretty sight?

O petite plant, do tell me.

When I am old and green, will it matter thee?
When I am old and stout, will it matter thee?

Steadfast and stout – for flames and warmth of your family,
Nesting and dense – choking and in disharmony.

Colours I shall proclaim – for you to make a pretty frame,
Kissing the clouds – to be cut and rendered lame.

What shall I be, will it matter thee?
For I wonder, Should I be?

The movie that beat Lagaan...

Chinese New Year meant time on hand to catch up on some movies. Opportunity presented itself to revisit a movie that had left an indelible imprint on my senses.

The movie that beat Lagaan at the Oscars and was released way back in 2001 – yes I am talking about No Man’s Land. Written and Directed by Danis Tanovic – this movie on a very grave subject of the Bosnia-Serbia conflict renders itself in to a black comedy.

The movie meteors in with a bang with the dialogue which runs as –

‘Do you know the difference between a pessimist and an optimist?
‘A pessimist thinks things can't be worse. An optimist knows they can’.

This sets up the fable perfectly. In a strife-laden terrain and in the midst of smog emanating from the tanks and guns from either side – there lay a land which both parties dreaded to step on. A group of Bosniak relief workers lose their way and as the shroud of the night fog lifts – fall victim to the thundering Serbs.

The storyline meanders to find two Bosniak soldiers (one of them supine –with a triggered off mine under him which would explode if he moved) with a Bosnian Serb Soldier stuck in the same trench. What allures me to the movie is the way the movie encapsulates subtle plebian interactions under adversity. One scene that stands out is how the two soldiers try to prove a point on ‘Who started the war?’ by brandishing guns at each other!

With the two parties – Bosnia and Serbia – keeping away from the troubled trench – UNPROFOR comes in to play with media intervention as an added spice. The movie unfurls the politics at the helm and makes a mockery of ‘Play Neutral’ motto adopted.

These are just snippets in to what truly was a master class screenplay. The movie attempts to unravel, mock and question – inane human characteristics, politics overwhelming adversity and the war itself.

A must see!! Ah yes – you will need sub-titles.

Happy Birthday Rat! :)

Ousting Progress

‘Maharashtra is for Maharashtrians’ – 1970’s Balasaheb Thackeray Campaign

‘When in Maharashtra, act like Maharashtrians’ – 2008 Maharashtra Navnirman Sena(Raj Thackeray)

Like Uncle Like Nephew?

It all started in somewhere in 1967 with fiery speeches - that moved masses(or did it discombobulate), ‘son of soil’ admonishments and sparks of violence against the South Indians – who were slowly creeping in to middle class strata snatching away jobs from the ‘sons of the soil’.

Fast forward history pages and you shall find – Anti region turn to anti-religion and anti-Pakistan(including digging up Cricket pitches and the Bombay riots),Anti-actors and Anti-Bollywood (Dilip Kumar for the uncle and Big B for the nephew) and finally giving way to Anti-North Indian which now probably has culminated in to Anti Samajwadi Party!

All this – ofcourse- can be disguised as Nirman. Nirman which pirouettes itself around the hinge called Politics – of deception, mockery, clannish penchant and insatiable desire for power.

The root of unemployment of the Marathi youths shall not be extirpated by ousting the clans who in a larger picture form one face of India. Nirman has to assume a larger and a social meaning. Fiery speeches which are directed towards discombobulative effect shall need to assume a progressive nature towards shaping tomorrow’s Maharashtrians. There are lessons to be learnt from the neighboring state of Gujarat (not from the politics or the politicians there but from the scale of development it has assumed). Castles cannot be built by blistering speeches – neither can Mumbai turn in to a Shanghai by ousting progress.

A close friend of mine reiterated something Charles Schultz had penned for Snoopy –

‘Yesterday I was a dog. Today I'm a dog. Tomorrow I'll probably still be a dog. Sigh! There's so little hope for advancement.’

Maze of ecstasy

Concoction mildly bitter benignly saccharine and cherubic overtly,
Time gazes in awe as Coffee and Chicory sieve in propinquity.
Davarah-Tumbler that encases this potion - ferments fantasy,
Milk and Filter Coffee twirl, bubbling aura elevating senses in to a maze of ecstasy.